ハロウィン休暇に備えて利益確定で, 7,000台で一時停止. PSEiは235ポイント安 7,054 (-3.22% 週間). industrials (+1.48%), services (+0.77%)に助けられたものの, ほとんどのセクターは下落property (-7.03%), holdings (-5.32%), mining & oil (-3.92%). 平均売買代金も弱含み69.2億ペソ(-22.55% 週間) 外人は3億ペソの売り越しに転じた(前週2.1億ペソ買い越し). 騰落 112 - 85.
Macro-level checks. Next week’s FOMC Press Con, in tandem with October inflation announcement, should collectively shape the macro-outlook for the month, especially heading into the close of 4Q21, aka the forging season of capex plans. First, recall that as of last September’s minutes, the Fed could begin its tapering program as early as mid-November; with inflation pressures in the developed world hitting harder than expected, a more hawkish Fed leaves regional central banks with less wiggle room to sustain the accommodative stance required to make economic recoveries. While the BSP has more legroom than most, it contends with (mostly supply-side) inflation issues that are expected to remain elevated until 1H22; in that case, October inflation maintaining September’s downtrend (4.8% from 4.9% in Aug) should ease near-term worries.
‘Prelude to Spring’. Transportation/travel is a sector we have been monitoring since the onset of lockdowns as a great majority of the labor force remains dependent on commutes, naturally dictating the level of productivity especially in highly urbanized areas. As transportation capacity is increased and travel is opened to a greater demographic (i.e. vaccinated minors & senior citizens), there may be a higher ceiling for 4Q21/1Q22 GDP, provided this level of mobility is sustained. This is also contingent on the likelihood of ‘revenge spending’ offsetting ‘cautious consumerism’ observed in the past quarters. Earnings of cyclicals seem to partly validate this, tracking our EPS expectations so far.
Expect supply pressure as the broader market finds its identity above 7,000, especially as the IPO market wrestles for liquidity in the coming weeks. Range trade. Immediate support is 7,000, resistance is 7,100-7,200.